Don't take dumb risks

In 2014, I was racing at the club with the wind blowing from an odd direction.  The right hand side of the course (going up wind) was exposed to stronger winds on average, but was very gusty, and had the lulls to match.  The left-hand side was sheltered, and the wind was slower, but steady.
The first upwind beat, I went to the unstable wind and caught a couple of gusts.  I rounded the windward mark in first place, in front of Ken Eaves who had gone to the left from the start line.  I managed to hold my position around the gybe mark and back to the start line for the final beat.
Now I had a decision: do I go to the right again into the gusty stuff, and try to extend my lead?  Or do I go left where the wind was constant and try to defend my position from there?
I went right, and got caught in a lull.  By the time the fast air hit me again, I was well behind.  I rounded the mark third, and finished fourth.

Lessons learned: don't take unnecessary risks

Ken had gone left at the start of the race -- this should have been a tip off that he would (likely) go left again on the second beat.  I should have gone left and kept in front of him.  I could have kept an eye on him as he rounded the downwind mark, and (just in case he changed tactics and went right) I could always tack and move towards the gusty stuff to ensure he didn't pass.
Doug at Improper Course wrote a post about a similar tactical decision (http://www.impropercourse.com/2015/04/when-to-slow-down.html) where he opined:

Sailing more conservatively is much better than hoping that things would somehow work out. I got greedy, which rarely works with mark roundings, and it cost me the event.

He knows what he's talking about.